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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple script. It frequently serves as a form of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence is handed the prize. In reality, it creates an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or merely the biggest upset.

However the latest field is distinctly different. The pool of nominees is unusually deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division champions declining and recent also-rans improving together. During an typical season, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a wild and entertaining year, he's facing multiple other elite candidates.

Here is how the ideal ballot ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his special ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than going rogue. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers consistently. The QB has thrived. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to create magic out of nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the building with the level of hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current isn't a typical campaign!

Where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. However Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his early public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. From the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

Following an initial hot start, there was a risk that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still